An Analysis Of Lexmark

In 2005, Berkshire Hathaway bought about a million shares of Lexmark. I haven’t followed this story closely, but I assume the stock was purchased by Lou Simpson rather than Warren Buffett. I have only two reasons for believing this: the total purchase was small relative to Berkshire’s investable assets and the Lexmark purchase is typical of Simpson’s investment philosophy (or at least, what little I can glean about his investment philosophy from his past purchases). Regardless of who actually makes the purchases, a new Berkshire holding always draws a lot of commentary.

The commentary on Lexmark has been almost uniformly negative. Even many value investors have a very dim view of Lexmark at these prices. Now, I am not a contrarian investor. Psychology and sentiment do not enter into my considerations at all. I’ve bought stocks trading near five year lows, and I’ve bought stocks trading near five year highs. I just try to be rational. I’m not afraid to agree with the consensus, if it’s an accurate representation of reality. Here, it isn’t. The model of Lexmark that has emerged in my mind over the past few weeks bears little resemblance to the Lexmark I’ve seen described elsewhere.

Most of the negative comments about Lexmark have focused on the consumer segment. Yet, more than 75% of Lexmark’s profits come from the business segment. The business segment is Lexmark’s franchise. There, the company has managed to build a moat, not a very wide moat, but a moat nonetheless. Lexmark is the only focused, integrated printing company of any consequence. It understands its business customers’ needs, and provides specially tailored solutions that none of its competitors can offer. Worldwide, some very large companies use Lexmark’s products for some very specialized tasks. Among these are retailers, banks, and pharmacies. Lexmark has complete control of their product including the printing technology itself and the software used to manage its printers (i.e., to interface with the user’s computer). Businesses that care about getting these specialized tasks done right (and getting them done cheap) use Lexmark.

Even Lexmark’s competitors have to concede the fact that Lexmark knows printing better than anyone else. Lexmark is the only company that develops its own ink – jet, monochrome, and color laser technologies. It is a vertically integrated printer business like no other. The two competitors most often mentioned as threats to Lexmark are HP and Dell. While everyone will suffer from deep price cuts; I think it’s HP and Dell who should be scared.

Lexmark has the much stronger competitive position. For years to come, it will be launching the best printing products for high ink consumption tasks. Lexmark hasn’t been focused on competing directly with these companies in the consumer segment; that’s going to change because of the emerging photo printing market.

Lexmark isn’t interested in selling hardware. It’s interested in selling ink. Now that there is real demand emerging for high quality printing within the home, Lexmark is going to start going after the consumer market. Over the next few years, Lexmark will be selling more printers in this segment. A few years after that, the company will see strong recurring revenues from ink sales.

Generic ink cartridges are the biggest threat to the high margin printing business. However, I believe, of all the players in this industry, Lexmark will be the least affected. Its highest margin sales are its most insulated sales. Its lowest margin sales, in its least dominant businesses, are where generic ink will hurt the most.

There is also some concern that Dell could always move away from using Lexmark printers. Let them. From what I can see, sales to Dell will not be a particularly significant high free cash flow margin business. There’s no benefit to the Lexmark brand either. That brand is going to become stronger over the next decade, because the quality is already there. Lexmark simply hasn’t been that visible to consumers. The Dell deal doesn’t help build the Lexmark brand. Honestly, I wouldn’t be terribly troubled if Lexmark’s sales to Dell dropped to zero tomorrow. Such an occurrence would not materially affect my valuation of Lexmark.

As far as I can tell, Lexmark’s management is excellent. They understand the printer business better than anyone (they also happen to understand the science of printing better than anyone – CEO Paul Curlander has a PhD in electrical engineering from MIT). Lexmark’s management also sees highly profitable opportunities in printing long – term, despite a very competitive situation short – term. I agree with that assessment.

Within the printer business, there is a real danger of ferocious price competition. However, I do not believe there is a real danger of prolonged ferocious price competition. Lexmark is the company best positioned to weather the storm. It will generate tons of free cash flow, none of which has to be siphoned off to other lines of businesses, as it does at all of Lexmark’s competitors. Lexmark’s high free cash flow margin recurring revenue stream will supply it with more than enough ammunition to outlast its competitors. They may be deep pocketed, but eventually, they will have to answer to Wall Street. Long – term, they can’t compete with Lexmark. It will take them some time to realize that. But, Lexmark has the time.

That’s my assessment of Lexmark on qualitative grounds. How does the stock look quantitatively?

The stock is selling for about 15 times earnings and 10 times cash flow. Right now, a dollar of Lexmark’s stock buys you a dollar of sales. I think that’s a bargain. Not many companies of this caliber sell at a price – to – sales ratio of one.

For the last ten years, Lexmark’s return on equity has not fallen below 20%. During the same period, the company’s return on assets never fell below 10%. The free cash flow margin has generally been in the 5 – 10% range.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lexmark’s ROE and free cash flow fall substantially in the next few years. However, long – term, I believe a return on equity of 15 – 20% and a free cash flow margin of 8 – 10% are sustainable. In fact, if I was forced to pick an exact ROE that Lexmark could sustain I would pick 20%. But, I would also caution you not to expect that for the next five years or so.

The important estimate is the 8 – 10% free cash flow margin. That’s the best way to value Lexmark. At one times sales, you have an 8 – 10% yield, if you think sales can be sustained. If you think sales can grow, you have to factor that into your analysis. At present, a discount rate of 8% seems appropriate.

I never do a discounted free cash flow analysis on this blog, because I feel the variables that go into are something you have to decide on for yourself. I don’t want to slap an exact figure on the value of a company, because I don’t want to suggest that kind of precision. But here, you can clearly see how I’d value Lexmark. I gave you what I think Lexmark’s free cash flow margin will be (8-10%), you know what Lexmark’s sales are ($5.4 billion), and I gave you the discount rate I thought was most appropriate (8%). The only necessary variable I haven’t provided is a sales growth estimate, and I’m not going to provide that, because I don’t want you to think it has anything to do with the next five years.

It doesn’t. I’m looking at this company well beyond that point, and I like what I see. Lexmark will strengthen its brand (with consumers), and people will still be printing. So, yes, I am projecting revenue growth for Lexmark; and yes, it is enough to suggest Lexmark is worth substantially more than $5.5 billion.

An Analysis Of Journal Communications

Journal Communications (JRN) is comprised of seven about abstracted businesses: The Milwaukee Sentinel, Association Newspapers, Television Stations, Radio Stations, Telecommunications, Press Services, and Absolute Marketing. The company’s bristles reportable segments do not absolutely bout these seven businesses; however, I accept an broker should assay JRN on the base of these seven businesses and their basic properties, rather than as a distinct activity affair with bristles reportable business segments. Additional affidavit for this acceptance will be categorical below. For now, it is acceptable to say that if Journal Communications were to bisect into seven abstracted accessible companies, the accumulated bazaar bulk of those companies would be essentially greater than JRN’s accepted action value. Simply put, the sum of the genitalia would be admired added awful than the whole.

Journal Communications has an action bulk of aloof beneath $1 billion. Pre-tax owner’s balance are apparently about $125 million. So, JRN trades at eight times pre-tax owner’s earnings. That’s cheap.

Journal’s able tax bulk is 40%. That is an almighty aerial rate. Journal’s media backdrop would acceptable accomplish added after-tax assets beneath altered ownership. The aberration would be material; but, for anyone added than a awful leveraged buyer, tax accumulation would not be a primary consideration. When evaluating Journal as a activity concern, it is altogether adapted to amusement the abounding 40% tax accountability as a reality. These taxes abate owner’s balance by $50 million.

With after-tax owner’s balance of $75 actor and an action bulk of $1 billion, Journal’s owner’s balance crop is 7.5%. Remember, this is the after-tax yield. The pre-tax crop is 12.5%. When evaluating a company, it’s best to use the pre-tax crop for purposes of comparison. Aftermost I checked, the 30 – year Treasury band was acquiescent 4.63%. So, attractive at JRN’s accepted balance alone, the banal appears to action a ample allowance of safety.

This is abnormally accurate if you accede the actuality that balance yields action added aegis adjoin aggrandizement than band yields. They don’t action absolute protection. But, with stocks, there is at atomic the achievability that nominal banknote flows will access forth with inflation. The banknote flows generated by bonds are anchored in nominal terms, and accordingly action no aegis adjoin inflation.

When evaluating a abiding investment, such as a stock, I do not use a abatement bulk of beneath than 8%. This reduces JRN’s allowance of assurance considerably. Instead of actuality the aberration amid 12.5% and 4.63%, Journal’s allowance of assurance is the aberration amid 12.5% and 8%. Is such a allowance of assurance sufficient? Maybe.

When evaluating a -to-be investment, I aboriginal attending at the accident of a adverse loss. What is the magnitude? And what is the probability? For my purposes, a adverse accident is authentic as any abiding accident of principal. The accident that I’ve overvalued a business is consistently greater than my accident of adverse loss, because I assert aloft a allowance of safety. A adverse accident is one that wipes out the absolute allowance of safety.

I can accomplish a bad advance afterwards adversity a adverse loss. For instance, best alternate funds are bad investments, because they underperform alternatives. However, alternate funds do not usually backpack a aerial accident of adverse loss. In fact, they about accept a low accident of adverse loss, because they are awful activated to the all-embracing market.

It’s easiest to accept this abstraction if you anticipate of account companies as actuality a lot like autograph insurance. Alike if absoluteness exceeds your expectations in nine out of every ten cases, a abhorrent absurdity in the tenth case can account you abundant harm. It isn’t aloof how abounding aberration you make. It’s additionally how big they are.

Some stocks, like Google (GOOG), barter at prices that acquiesce for adverse losses of ample magnitude. Added stocks, like Journal Communications, barter at prices that abandoned acquiesce for actual baby losses to principal. However, there is additionally the bulk of probability. How acceptable is it that a Google actor will ache a adverse loss? I don’t know. I’m not alike accommodating to hazard a guess.

In the case of Journal Communications, I am accommodating to stick my close out.

I accept an advance in JRN carries a actual low accident to arch – appreciably beneath than, say, an advance in the S&P 500. Why? Because Journal Communications is trading at a actual bashful owner’s balance multiple. But, that isn’t the abandoned reason. You shouldn’t attending at Journal abandoned from a activity affair perspective. JRN mainly consists of readily bartering properties. The assets abetment shares JRN are absolutely substantial:

Publishing

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Milwaukee’s abandoned aloft circadian and Sunday newspaper. The Sunday copy has the accomplished assimilation bulk (72%) of any Sunday bi-weekly in the top 50 U.S. markets. The circadian copy has the third accomplished assimilation bulk (49%) of any circadian bi-weekly in the top 50 U.S. markets. The cardboard has a circadian apportionment of 240,000 and a Sunday apportionment of 425,000.

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel additionally operates three websites. JSOnline.com and On Wisconsin.com accomplish announcement revenue. PackerInsider.com is a cable – based website.

Over the after most three years, both circadian apportionment and Sunday apportionment accept decreased by about 1% annually. Abounding run announcement linage has additionally collapsed by a agnate amount; however, afterwards accounting for increases in allotment run announcement and album pieces, it appears there has been no absolute abatement in absolute advertising.

The Journal Sentinel generates about $230 actor in revenue. Announcement accounts for 80% of the Journal Sentinel’s acquirement (the added 20% is apportionment revenue). Announcement acquirement is somewhat cyclical, and may currently be aloft “normal” levels.

It’s difficult to bulk the Journal Sentinel, because JRN places the Journal Sentinel and its association newspapers beneath one reportable segment. Alike if the numbers for the Journal Sentinel were burst out, I would accept still accept some adversity advancing up with an exact figure, because I’m not an able on newspapers.

Having said that, I can’t see how the Journal Sentinel could be account beneath than $250 actor or added than $500 million. If I had to put a dollar bulk on the Journal Sentinel, it would apparently be in the 250 – $300 actor range. I’d like to anticipate this is a bourgeois estimate, but I don’t perceived abundant about newspapers to be sure. JRN’s abortion to breach out the numbers for the Journal Sentinel afar from the association newspapers complicates the issue. However, I am absolutely assured the Journal Sentinel is account no beneath than $250 million.

It’s alike added difficult to bulk JRN’s Journal Association Publishing Group. It consists of 43 association newspapers, 41 shoppers, and 9 alcove publications (automotive, boating, etc.). The accumulation generates about $100 actor in revenue. I can’t bulk this accumulation afar from the Journal Sentinel, because of the above abridgment of acknowledgment (combining the accumulation with the Journal Sentinel for advertisement purposes), my disability to acquisition abundant accessible advice on association bi-weekly businesses, and added such factors.

The best I can do is action an accomplished assumption as to the accumulated bulk of JRN’s publishing business. My best assumption is that, taken together, the Journal Sentinel and the association newspapers are apparently account about amid $300 actor and $500 million.

Broadcasting

Journal Communications owns 38 radio stations. The best important of which are: WTMJ-AM Milwaukee, KMXZ-FM Tucson, KFDI-FM Wichita, and KTTS – FM Springfield (MO). All four of these stations are cardinal one in their market. JRN’s radio stations accomplish about $80 actor in revenue.

Journal Communications owns seven television stations. About all of these stations are ranked as one of the top three in their market. Three are NBC affiliates, three are ABC affiliates, and one is a Fox affiliate. JRN owns two stations in Milwaukee, two in Idaho, one in California, one in Michigan, and one in Nevada. Journal’s TV stations accomplish about $90 actor in revenue.

Again, it’s too adamantine for me to bulk JRN’s TV stations and radio stations separately. Taken together, I accept they’re account about amid $250 and $450 million.

Telecommunications

JRN owns a 3,800 mile arrangement in the Abundant Lakes region. Nor light Telecommunications generates about $150 actor in revenue. I’m actual afraid to accomplish any attempts to bulk this division, because I don’t accept the telecommuting business able-bodied enough. Having said that, I don’t see how it could be account abundant beneath than $350 million.

Miscellaneous

I don’t like the press casework and absolute business business at all. I accept no abstraction how to bulk them. They do accept revenues though; so, they are apparently account article to someone. Revenues from these two businesses beat $100 million, but they are not actual profitable.

Real Estate

JRN owns a hasty bulk of unencumbered absolute estate. For the best part, such backdrop are carefully angry to one of JRN’s operating businesses. As continued as JRN continues as a activity concern, abundant of the absolute acreage could not be sold. Aloof to accord you some abstraction of the admeasurement of these properties, it appears JRN owns a little beneath than two actor aboveboard anxiety – abundant of which is in or about Milwaukee. I can not accurately bulk such absolute estate. As I said, abundant of it is carefully angry to operating activities. However, barrio in burghal areas can sometimes be adapted to added uses.

It hardly affairs though. Journal Communications is acceptable to abide a activity affair for some time, and as continued as it does, it is absurd to actuate of such assets.

Valuation

So, what is JRN worth? It’s adamantine to say. The accepted action bulk is about $1 billion, which is acutely too low. My best bourgeois estimates for the publishing, broadcasting, and telecom businesses abandoned add up to $900 million. I anticipate those are actual bourgeois estimates. Using added reasonable estimates, I can not access at a bulk of beneath than $1.25 billion for JRN’s basic parts. This is accurate whether I accomplish an built-in bulk assay on the absolute company, or administer some array of earnings, sales, or EBITDA assorted to anniversary business separately.

Journal Communications is apparently account about amid $1.25 billion and $2 billion. I’m absolutely bleak about the bi-weekly business; therefore, I would angular appear the $1.25 billion bulk (which assumes hardly crumbling revenues). Any array of acquirement advance would badly change the valuation. If such advance will occur, JRN is acutely undervalued at these levels. However, I’m not abiding there will be any advance at all.

Journal Communications voting anatomy will apparently abash the best advance of action: breaking up the company. JRN should circuit off the association newspapers, the TV stations, the radio stations, and the telecoms business. The press casework and absolute business businesses should additionally be disposed of in some way. These are absolutely actual altered businesses. There are few acceptable affidavit for befitting them together, and abounding acceptable affidavit for amid them.

Newspapers, radio, and TV all face altered challenges. They charge altered managers who accept complete ascendancy over basic allocation and who are compensated based on the achievement of their business, not on the achievement of a hodge-podge of assorted media properties. Breaking JRN up will accomplish it easier to administer and will accomplish it easier for accepted owners to actuate of their shares at added favorable prices should they ambition to.

If these businesses traded as bristles or six altered accessible companies, it is actual absurd their accumulated bazaar cap would be beneath than $1 billion. It may not alike be all-important for them to be about traded. There ability be buyers for such properties, if JRN’s backdrop were afar into accepted faculty collections.

But, none of this is acceptable to happen. Employees ascendancy JRN (they advance ascendancy through the buying of shares with asymmetric voting rights). No one absorbed in afraid things up will booty a pale in this company, because he would be clumsy to appoint his will. I can’t brainstorm administration anytime embarking on such a across-the-board adventure afterwards some prodding from the outside.

JRN has about no downside. Sadly, it doesn’t assume to accept a lot of upside either. There is a absolute crisis investors will see their allotment atrophy abroad as the time it takes to apprehend the bulk in Journal Communications proves costly. Time is the adversary of the broker who buys this affectionate of business at this affectionate of price.

Objectively, I accept to accept JRN is undervalued. But, I’m not abiding it’s grossly undervalued – and I am abiding there are more good continued appellation investments.

Understanding The Basics Of Getting Out Of Deb

When debts begin to pile up around you and you can't make your regular monthly repayments on time or even at all, you may be faced with a very stressful situation. To make things worse, you will be denied credit from other lenders because you can't pay the credit you already have. If that wasn't bad enough, you will also have rude, irate and threatening letters and phone calls from your creditors, demanding that you pay them what is owed.
As these problems escalate, so do your bills. The problem with many consumer debts or unsecured credit is the interest rates are so high that, even if you are keeping up with your minimal monthly payments, chances are that you will never pay off your debts anyway. If the interest wasn't bad enough, once you begin to fall behind in your repayments or you borrow above the limit on your credit cards, you are likely to end up paying a whole host of other additional fees, such as late payment and over the limit penalties.
When faced with these situations, you need debt relief or ways to get your debt under control to place yourself in a position where you are able to get rid of your debts once and for all. Before exploring debt relief options, keep in mind that it didn't take you a matter of days or weeks to get into debt, so you could hardly expect that debt relief will work for you in a matter of days or weeks either. Any option that you use to get out of debt will take time, patients and careful planning of your finances to make it effective.
What To Do First: There are many different ways to get debt relief. Before you begin, you will need to sit down and make a list of all of your debts, then make a note of each creditor, their name, telephone and what their interest rates are. You will also need to work out your incoming money and where that money goes each week. Set yourself up with a budget and stick to it, while you are looking for options that will suit your circumstances better and help you get some debt relief.
See which of your debts are attracting the highest interest rates and target them. They are the biggest strain on you, so the sooner that you pay them off, the closer you will be to getting some debt relief. Pay the minimum on all of your other debts, except for the debt at the top of your list and pay as much on that one as you possibly can.
Next, you will need to call each of your creditors and explain to them your situation. Be honest with them. Where possible, ask them if you could pay your debt in full for less money or if they would lower your interest rates while you are paying your debts off. Ask your creditors how you can work together to get your debts paid off. You may be surprised at how willing they are to help you repay your debts.
If you are not confident talking to your creditors or if you aren't having much luck with them, you may want to consider using a credit counseling service to help you get some debt relief. A credit councilor will work with you and your creditors to lower the interest you are paying and make your monthly repayments more manageable. Additionally, a credit counseling service will teach you how to budget. Some credit counseling agencies give their customers the option to pay money to them each month and have their debts paid on time by the credit counseling company.
What Are Your Options? The most common way that people often think of dealing with way too many bills, is to go bankrupt. This is probably the worst thing that you can do. By going bankrupt, you are likely to still end up with some of your debts needing to be repaid, as well as severely damaging your credit report, which will hamper your chances of getting credit in the future. Even if you do get credit after a bankruptcy, you will have to pay huge amounts of interest, which will put you back in the same situation you are already in. So even though bankruptcy may seem like an option, use it as your very last alternative and even then use caution.
One of the best ways to get some financial assistance would have to be debt consolidation. Basically, a debt consolidation loan will pay for all of the debts that you already owe and roll them over to one, usually with lower interest rates and lower monthly repayments. There are loans available from lending institutions that don't require you to have collateral. The interest rates will be higher than a secured loan, although they will be much less than the interest rates being paid to other credit companies or on credit cards.
If you currently own your own home, you may also want to consider the possibilities of a home-refinance, also referred to as a home equity loan, which can be used for a variety of reasons, including repaying your debts. By refinancing, you may be able to get a lower interest rate on your home, as well as pay off your debts. If you take the refinanced loan out over a longer term, your repayments will be lower each month, giving you instant debt relief.
While debt relief is important to get out of the debt you are already in, it is also important to make sure to educate yourself in how to budget your money carefully and manage it better in the future. You want to avoid getting into a continuous cycle of getting in and out of debt.